1) That Trump is running as essentially an incumbent, and perhaps "only" getting 60% of the primary vote is telling. Though he seems powerful now (and during his foaming-at-the-mouth speeches and convention), many Haley-Christie supporters will back Biden.

2) Independents and Moderates are likely to back Biden, as Trump scares them, plus abortion issue.

3) This is turning into a "who do you hate less" election. Biden's record is pretty good though, and I don't really see him slowing down cognitively. People will realize that the economy is good, clean-energy is working, foreign policy is sensible. Graham/McConnell even support his border plan.

4) Just as Dr. Oz/Kari Lake/H Walker faltered in swing states PA/AZ/GA, Trump is likely to falter there as well.

5) Biden needs to somehow buttress the Black vote.

6) Our worry is less that Trump wins and more that he launches another insurrection. Only this time, Biden has the Presidency and the upper-hand.