I agree that much of our news re: Ukraine is rather skewed towards the wishful thinking of a Ukrainian victory, which will be difficult given the things you mention. However, I think what looks positive for Ukraine is the following:

1) I think they will continue receiving help from the West, if not outright NATO intervention (if Russia goes completely off the rails, ie invades Poland or Baltics)

2) Just like Nazi Germany, Russia is suffering from brain drain and less-than-committed troops as time goes on. It doesn't really have enough friends either (or at least friends crazy enough to alienate the rest of the world while destroying their economies)

3) The West will learn to replace the lost oil supplies, either by exploiting the large deposits which are surely offshore or in the Arctic, also by renewing relations w places like Venezuela.

4) Russia can keep bombing the Ukraine, but obviously they will never win their hearts. Russia will face endless insurrection, eventually regime change, as nobody really like Russia.

5) The Ukraine is resource rich and can perhaps turn tables on Russia eventually.