I believe Trump wins the Republican nomination in a crowded field, loses to DeSantis in a head to head since 25% MAGA red-meat eaters still favor him, but 25% of more rational Republicans realize he will lose National election (thus in total, portion of Trumpers will defect to DeSantis, but then maybe 10% of all Republicans may defect to a centrist Biden). Repubs also fear Trump losing & starting his own party. On Biden side, he must continue Ukraine & economic success for another 18 months, head off a Bernie/Warren-like third party threat.