Many Things “Getting Worse” Seem to be Getting Better
Our Nation’s sensibilities seem stuck between the far-right’s denial of problems, and the far-left’s belief that our problems offer no hope. I seem to have cultivated a niche for seeing the long-term positives in the things everyone else sees as negative (if not apocalyptic). On many fronts, it seems it is genuinely “darkest before the dawn”, including population/human footprint, War, Racism, Democracy, and Climate Change. Actually, there are a few things even I’m pessimistic about (spoiler alert, fiscal deficits and family values). But stay with me here!
I recently received a great deal of readership from an article I wrote about trends toward lower world population numbers/lower human footprint given more efficient ag practices and the possibilities of abundant clean (and cheap) energy. These are verifiable trends that have been written about in National Geographic, Science Magazine, etc. What surprised me was the volume of cynical negativity about my comments, as though many people are HEAVILY VESTED IN A NEGATIVE VIEW OF THE FUTURE (I’m guessing that it may mirror their disappointing life experience in some way). This is odd, since there is measurable progress on many fronts, which if sustained, gives hope. So at the risk of sounding like the Ted Lasso of the future, here goes:
WORLD POPULATION AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE: As written about elsewhere, this may be the big one. Agriculture is getting much more efficient, as you’d expect from advances in science and technology. With corresponding changes to the human diet (simply put, more fruits/veggies, less meat/grain/dairy), and less mouths to feed, we may be able to grow food in a much smaller area. The wild card is available energy, which is needed in greater amounts to grow fruits/veggies in heavy frost/low sun regions (about half our land mass). The punchline of this is that life until maybe 100 years ago (which we all look upon as quaint) was REALLY INEFFICIENT AG BY COMPARISON, since people had to have large families to farm marginal land (with what turns out to be not-very-nutritious food). The lower population projections go along with the increased ag efficiency projections, since highly efficient agribusiness is pushing people towards urban areas (where they have fewer kids). Meanwhile, there are things like GMO, which has a bad side (Monsanto trying to patent all corn) and a good side (trying to have engineered backup banana species to supplement the few natural varieties subject to blight). Obviously, not all of this is a sunny projection, since more urbanites may cause trouble and the lower population numbers may lead to dangerous depopulation. As such, we’ll have to be on our toes, but of course threatened plant and animal species will be given a chance to recover, if trends hold. GLOOM AND DOOMERS INSIGHT: Generally, this is “Big Corporate ______ is conspiring to corner all (pick one: Food, energy, money, media) and we’re all screwed unless we tax the (snot, crap, bejeezus) out of the rich and redistribute the wealth”
CLIMATE CHANGE: There are various “climate change simulators” online, and one learns that it is surprisingly easy to combat climate change, using some basic premises (and political/societal cooperation…the hard part). Now never mind that some are not even convinced that there IS climate change, but let’s just say “We may be close to some really clean and abundant energy that gets rid of pollution” (See? If you say it that way, just about everyone agrees). Wind, solar, and EVs are progressing (thanks to subsidies/investment and the fact that the energy wind/solar produces is getting cheaper) yet there is still much work to be done. Put simply, the intermittency of wind/solar and lack of storage/grid deficiencies limit wind/solar growth. What is badly needed is 1) An interim source of clean energy that can be turned on and off quickly, to supplement wind/solar and 2) An energy dense portable version of clean energy, if not 3) An interim source of clean energy that is on all the time. Well, the answers to 1,2, and 3 would be 1) Carbon Capture Natural Gas, 2) Green or Blue Hydrogen and 3) Next Generation Nuclear. Numbers 2 & 3 will take about 5–10 years to implement, but #1 is more or less here now, if we’re willing to pay about 30% more for electricity. The funny thing is that the DOOMERS hate “anything that burns” (even if it is scrubbed of 90% of its CO2) as an apparent indictment of the evil corporate oil industry. My thoughts are something like “if Carbon Capture and Hydrogen can give you net zero carbon by 2030 (and it fits our budgets), who cares who’s making money from it?” The DOOMERS thinking implies a kind of hidden agenda, and a rather Socialist one. They ironically/counterproductively want more gloom and doom and delayed climate change solutions as a way to torpedo the evil corporations and 1 percenters (and to get more attention paid to all the stickers on their 2013 Priuses). There is also the issue of Geoengineering, which may augment clean energy, except if done wrong may have its own environmental impact. These currently fall into three categories, cloud brightening, phytoplankton stimulation, and direct carbon capture. It would seem that in absence of further knowledge, whatever is done needs to have the potential of being undone (see also Artificial Intelligence below).
WAR AND WEAPONRY: Modern Anthropologists have noted that despite all the gloom and doom ascribed to modern warfare, the actual body counts in modern wars are less (proportionally) than in previous times. Jared Diamond notes that in primitive societies, the deaths attributed to warfare are about 5% over time, and in modern societies closer to 1%. I realize that this statistic might not help you sleep better at night (given all the nuclear stockpiles, drones, and hypersonic missiles flying around), so let’s look at it another way. We may be getting close to a sort of “perfect missile shield” that involves satellites using lasers to knock missiles off course, if not better anti-missile systems that destroy incoming missiles. Add to that the “Mutual Assured Destruction” concept (Nations afraid to launch nuclear weapons for fear it would create a self-defeating chain reaction) and there may be hope for cooperation among nations. Not to be Pollyanna-ish here, there will still be guerilla style battles and war deaths, but what if there’s also perfect body-armor invented?
MEDICINE AND HEALTH: Medicine and healthcare are currently at a kind of awkward crossroads. Never before have we been so close to understanding how our bodies work and what makes us healthy, yet there are now many expensive treatments that don’t work very well. In addition, everyone wants a kind of “National Healthcare System” that they perceive to be unlimited and free (it won’t be). I’m not even sure that many understand what “good health” really means (hint: Its mostly good diet and exercise, not taking a pricey “anti-slob pill”). The promise of genetic intervention, full body scans, and microfluidics are vast, but not yet realized. However, in maybe 10–20 years, there may be a combination of relatively cheap vaccines, CRISPR-CAS genetic engineering, CAR-T cancer therapy, inflammation control, generic drugs, and benign/relevant full-body scans that combined with Blue Zone lifestyles, actually will make people healthy at a reasonable price. This system may require copays and participation in the form of diet and exercise to be financially sustainable, and it will no doubt violate the DOOMERS credos of Left: Socialistic free everything for entitled sloths, or Right: Medical nothing, going it alone until you crawl off and die. Too bad.
RACISM: Racism in the US seems really bad, until you realize that our Nation is more integrated than any other in the history of the world (did you think that ancient Germanic Tribes, Vikings or Visigoths had a highly diverse society? Think again…if you were different you’d probably get seriously bonked on the head). Our country is conducting a largely successful integration experiment, and Europe is mostly following suit. Of course there are hiccups along the way (sometimes called slavery, ethnic cleansing, race riots, and vigilantism), but by and large we have begun integrating a quite diverse group of people (and with intermarriage, diversity is steadily increasing). I never understood those “against diversity”, since diversity is one of Nature’s phenomena over time (being against it is almost like being against breathing?) Ask any foreign person that aspires to living in the USA, business opportunity for ANYBODY here is much better than that elsewhere. Reparations? W.T.F., try telling that to Cambodian, Armenian, Ugandan immigrants who barely escaped with their lives, and kiss the earth of our Nation and don’t ask for squat. Expect other Nations to follow the “diversity” example in the future, because among other things, it produces good economies and wins wars. If you don’t believe me, witness the Rosey Riveters, Red Tail Fighters/Red Ball Express, Mexican bomb-makers, and Gay Code-breakers that helped us win WW II .
DEMOCRACY: Democracy has taken a bit of a hit lately, but looking at Zelensky and Ukraine, you’ve gotta marvel at how hard they are fighting for our 1776 ideals (just watch Zelensky’s “Servant of the People” if you beg to differ). Democracy has taken root in many parts of the world in the last 100 years, and even many people in countries that don’t have it (are you listening Iran, Russia, China, N. Korea) seem to want it. As said above, “Not-Democracy” seems to produce shitty economies and brain drain (to Democracies), who subsequently use this to win wars, etc (see above). A note of caution might be the seeming decadent byproduct of Democracy, called entitlement, slobbery, and bad family values (rightly called out by Republicans and Churches). However, I suspect that these may also be a symptom of the usual suspect, Socialism, which needs to be replaced by Democracy’s logical companion, Capitalism. Capitalism may seem cruel, but it also seems to create philanthropists like Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos (or more accurately their rich and divorced philanthropic wives). Lately, it seems to be busying itself building wind/solar/better medicine, while not tolerating lazy louts in a “sink or swim” kind of way. Doomers claim to want a “Social Democracy” (I get it, a type of “kind Capitalism”), but then they also have a strange love of places like Cuba, and reluctance of taking on a bullying Russia…(um, RIGHT! Like everyone wants to live in those places?)
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND GMO: Future police work is bound to get much better with AI, as facial recognition will identify the bad guys quickly. Yes, there is an ACLU issue there, but I guess if you’re a good guy, you won’t have to worry (or at least only worry enough to get a “wrongful arrest” attorney). Schools, theaters, stadiums, airports, shopping centers will likely have weapons recognition AI sensors to recognize danger at a distance. Of course, there is the “Terminator 3” problem (AI robots that are smart enough to take over the world), but that seems at a much higher level than security/policework (the level of warfare), and many elements are now banding together to encourage AI-limiting legislation. Similarly, things like GMO need to be kept at a level where they back up seed stocks and don’t seek to REPLACE heirloom seed stocks. At the heart of this may be a kind of “Anti-Trust” thing, in which governments learn to regulate rogue corporations. Yet rogue corporations almost seem self-limiting (like Trump and Elon Musk) as when they go cuckoo, people eventually stop buying their product. Finally, the specter of “AI robots replacing us as workers”, I predict this will become humans managing these robots, shorter work-weeks, and more time with our families. An AI-Robot manager may be needed to activate the “on”, “off”, and “kill” switches (in case the AI robot begins talking like Arnold Schwarzenegger). We will need to resist the “Wall-E” scenario where we become lazy/fat with no purpose (or pray that Wall-E saves us if we do). Surely a subject for another article, but well-managed AIs and GMOs may actually be great human enablers, if we use appropriate caution. Doomer alert: make all automation illegal so as to support overpaid/undereducated Union employee who sicks out 60 days a year, takes 2 hours lunch breaks, and files frequent trans harassment suits.
TROUBLE ON THE HORIZON?: But even optimistic me worries about a few things, for which there DOESN’T seem to be long-term good news. First, our Nation (and the rest of the world’s Nations) are hopelessly in debt, the vastness of which is almost incomprehensible. I suppose the most optimistic thing you can say about this is that many rich investors will someday get shorted (which should satisfy the DOOMERS that hate all rich people, a sort of natural wealth-distribution). In the meantime, we’d better hope we create some wisdom for the ages with all this funny money (instead of having a big party, with nothing to show for it). At worst, defaulting on our debt might mean losing a war with China and then having to give up land to them to compensate (then getting used to names like “The People’s Republic of California”).
The other thing I’m not so optimistic about is the direction of relations between men/women. I guess you might say future population decline is good news/bad news, since the good news is our habitat will be restored, the bad news will be because men/women no longer get along well enough to procreate. We seem headed for a “A Boy and his Dog” future, in which men are milked for their sperm, then disposed of (like 2 year old steers). A watershed moment in history may have been when early Feminists failed to take on “women with children” as a “choice” (along with “and/or having a career”), and now Democrats are becoming the “Party of Women, LGBT, and Not-Children”. I watch shows on TV that have nothing to do with children, and contrast that with shows of my youth that were ALL ABOUT CHILDREN. Rather than having/taking care of children, everyone seems to want to play Hollywood, dress-up, and go party. A telling sign of runaway entitlement in the future may be demands for new Medicare financed butt-jobs and things that make naughty children disappear (Wait! Has this already started?). Unless we’re in some kind of Cycle, I worry that our future world will be a Paradise, yet with only a bunch of partying adults and NO CHILDREN AROUND TO HELP ENJOY IT!!!! MAYBE DOOMERS WERE RIGHT, BUT ABOUT THE WRONG SUBJECTS!!!! HELP US WALL-E!!!!
Enjoy these other Vern Scott articles re: the current state of Green Energy!
