Predictions:

1) It would seem the Russian military succeeds in places the West doesn't care about (Syria and Chechnya) where mindless/ruthless bombardment against the relatively defenseless works. Against Ukraine (and if Russia should be so foolish, Poland or Baltics) they are hopelessly outgunned by more modern weaponry and tactics, and stalwart resistence.

2) You're right, Putin's big offensive is a gambit to achieve a settlement (a kind of Nixonian "Peace with Honor" like the Vietnam War) in a war he knows he can't win.

3) After such a "peace", Russia will regroup and cause trouble elsewhere, but may run into conflict w China eventually over territorial ambitions. It seems Russia needs China more than vice versa, in a Russo-Sino conflict Russia snuggles up to West?

4) Putin will be replaced, but Russia will continue to try and influence the West through espionage and hacking, as they have a Western envy problem.

5) The more enlightened Russians will get the hell out, so that someone like Navalny will be needed to stop brain drain and save economy.

6) Black market Russian oil is finding its way to US and elsewhere, yet eventual weaning the world away from oil will hurt Russia...maybe they find large Lithium deposits?