Vern Scott
2 min readDec 14, 2022

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Predictions given Ukraine's newfound powers:

1) That the Ukrainians are "defensively" attacking sites in Russia proper and are about to get Patriot missiles and a bolstered Air Force are game changers.

2) If Putin uses nukes or nuclear power plants as hostages, it more or less gives Ukraine/the West the pretext to go "all-in" on attacking Russia proper (not good for an already weakened Russia, a kind of WW III pretext but not that different from what's happening now, unless chain-reaction Armageddon takes place). It seems a kind of N Korean "if you keep playing w fire you will get burned" is operative here...despotic rulers keep threatening nukes to justify themselves but they might lose everything if they actually used them. This REALLY gives Biden/Macron the "speak softly but..." high ground.

3) Belarus may well invade Ukraine w Russia's help, but they wouldn't seem to fare well against a battle hardened and West-supported Ukraine.

4) The Ukraine might as well join NATO now? What's the difference, really?

5) A face-saving move for Russia/Belarus may be to keep Crimea then stand down (with a sort of inevitable regime change that is more Euro friendly? Maybe even accepting a kind of Marshall Plan?) They can entertain themselves by dominating the Kazakhstans of the world, but sort of tiptoe away from the Ukraine, which will have become too powerful? They can then posit themselves as "mediators" between the West and China? (better economics there)

6) Maybe Ukraine will someday become "too powerful"? They may want more territory and concessions from both Russia and the West in view of their bravery and strategic position in the World?

7) The West, finding alternate energy reserves & tired of financing this war, may want to divest itself of Ukraine-Russia affairs. China, losing its powerful Russian alliance and bleeding from lost Western business, stands down on Taiwan and other fronts. The West, weakened by enormous debt burdens, licks it own wounds. Now its 2030 and the world is at last at peace.

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Vern Scott
Vern Scott

Written by Vern Scott

Scott lives in the SF Bay Area and writes confidently about Engineering, History, Politics, and Health

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