Scenario I sounds like Germany after WW I and Scenario II Germany after WW II.

I don't even want to think about Scenarios III and IV.

The Ukraine certainly has the power and will to be "European", but I wonder what Russia will do with the "Stan" countries (attempted hegemony there could get bad for them too, although I suppose the West would not intervene). It would seem Russia has a giant chip on their shoulder and has to invade someone periodically to prop up its ego.