This is fairly well-known, but MAGAs who enjoy 75% support within their Party are dying in general elections, as they are goading the remaining 25% into voting for any centrist candidate the Dems put out there (Examples: GA Walker vs Warnock, AZ Lake vs Hobbs). Its interesting how both parties are clinging to idealistic messages and failing to "count the votes" (ie Trump and Sanders).

I believe Biden is doing a very good job (buttressing international alliances, disempowering China/Russia economies in the face of their aggression, climate change successes, even running a successful economy in the face of the Feds large rate hikes...remember that Trump ran up 7 Trillion deficit w zero interest rates!) Perhaps Biden's handlers deserve the credit, but nevertheless his 31% approval rate is a general election alarm bell.

Biden may be stuck with Harris, and as a practical liberal moderate, I suppose Newsome entering the race with some sort of Susan Rice (or dare we dream, Michelle Obama?) running mate the backup plan. This election ABSOLUTELY CANNOT BE WON BY TRUMP OR DESANTIS as NATO, Ukraine, rule of law, democracy, and a whole lot of other things at stake. If Biden can't get his approval numbers up to 50% by early '24, very tempting to go with alternatives. It would help to deflate disinformation such as that coming from those like Fox, Ramaswamy (is he on Putin payroll or what?), but that's not going away soon.

Meanwhile, Nikki Haley is making some sense all of a sudden (a temptation for independents and moderates), but if by some miracle she wins the party's nomination, she would surely swing far-rightward in a general election (never trust a Republican moderate, remember that McCain served up Sarah Palin in '08).

I suppose Dems need to hope for a DeSantis or Trump to run against, as the MAGA nuts aren't faring well in broader elections as of late (yet we all have Hillary's '16 defeat fresh in our minds).