We Could Use a Cold War with China Right Now
China is bullying neighboring countries while racking up the human-rights abuses. Meanwhile, the U.S. is falling behind in science, defense, manufacturing and GDP while running a trade deficit and being threatened internally by kooks. This is all making me wax nostalgically for the US-Soviet “Cold War” of the 50s-80s (which we conveniently won). All things considered, a “Cold War” with China might end up a lot better than a “Hot War”
One of the sad legacies of the Clinton-Bush-Obama presidencies may be that although we lowered the prices of many consumer goods (especially clothing and electronics), we also got snookered by the Chinese while making them a world powerhouse and pissing off a lot of blue collar workers. We’ve tried to look askance while China has done outlandish things such as threaten people who invade the space of their artificial islands (huh?), and squash the rights of Hong Kong, Tibet, Uyghers, Kazakhs, LGBT, and other dissenters. We stood by idly as they crashed our universities and stole technical information (just like Japan did in the 20s-30s), while drastically building up their military. They basically don’t need us much anymore, as they’ve taken what they can from us and are now busy making the whole world dependent on their manufacturing, while making half the world financially dependent on their “Belt and Road” initiative. They are rapidly filling the leadership gap created when Trump decided to abdicate any form of responsible involvement with the rest of the world. To placate an angry group of white blue-collars (who seem to be unaware of the benefits of lower-cost Walmart goods gained from international trade and guest workers), Trump demonized foreigners (except dictators). He also pulled us out of Iraq and Afghanistan, which provided a good place for disenchanted patriotic white people to vent their anger. He courted N. Korea, not fully understanding that they are just Chinese proxies, allowing Xi Jinping to say “Gee, that’s out of our control!” after Kim Jong-un threatened to lob nuclear missiles in our direction. (amesty.org, 2019),(Chatsky, McBride, 2020)
I was in China in 1983, and it was sort of a mess. This was before the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, but you would hear about the dissatisfaction from various citizens (who thought we Western tourists would be sympathetic to democracy). Many others seemed to fear or hate us, apparently being the leftovers of Maoist indoctrination. Others were quite nice, seemingly out of a sense of human decency. The place was tidy, and everyone had a job (guaranteed by their Socialist system), yet they were quite inefficient (some clerks at the sole airline desk were asleep on the job). Presumably, the “socialist-capitalist” improvements of Deng Xiaoping worked wonders, and now the successes of the heavy government manipulation of the quasi-capitalist economy makes other Countries question their “hands-off” government schemes. A friend of mine is married to a diplomatic corps employee who spent three years in Beijing, 2013–16. He said that “China thinks they own everything”, which may unfortunately include Japan, Malaysia, SE Asia, Philippines, the Koreas, in addition to Taiwan (famously) and beyond. The pattern is that ethnic Han Chinese (who populate many of these countries) are a sort of ethnic block, and form a pretext similar to what “Aryan” was to Germans in the 30s. One can imagine the sort of imperialistic demonizing that forms the basis for wanting to return what was “historically and rightfully Chinese”, but the fact is, China was never much bigger than it is now (it was bigger during the Yuan Dynasty in Marco Polo days, but only because it was taken over by Kublai Khan et al, and glued to the Mongol Empire). The sad fact is that China is large today because they themselves are imperialists, having gobbled up Manchuria, Tibet, and portions of what used to be India and SE Asia. My late wife was half-Filipina, and I learned that although the countries surrounding China have many ethnic Chinese, nobody really likes them. Being good merchants and reluctant to marry outside their culture, they more or less “invade” the surrounding countries and make the older, indigenous people dependent on their wares. As students and guest-workers, they are known to “steal” critical technologies. Examples of government-sponsored computer hacking for business and personal information abound. (classicalhistorian.com, 2016),(Fercility, 2021),(Cheng, 2020),(Wray, 2020)
As such, the Chinese already have a stake in surrounding Nations, and are hungry for more. Realistically, they have the economic and military power to make SE Asia, Korea, and anything else in the South China Seas “client states”, similar to the “Eastern Bloc” nations of the old USSR (basically nations that Russia occupied at the end of WW II). China also has serious payback issues with Japan (justifiably, as the “Rape of Nanking” and other atrocities left giant scars) and Taiwan (China has never once considered their autonomy, and lusts for “unification”). China’s xenophobia is a problem, as they are an aging population (partly due to their former “one child per family” population control policy), and perhaps they need to conscript other nations to staff their future factories. To be fair, China has a large expat population and is far from a monolithic political entity. It may contain certain restive elements (similar to the Tiananmen Square/Hong Kong protesters) which may someday force internal changes, but for the moment, they loom as a menacing threat to the US and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Countries, some of which we are treaty-bound to protect (partly through SEATO, a kind of Asian NATO). Part of this threat comes from the fact that China has perfected missile-technology that could sink many of our ships, and are gaining in nuclear, sonic, space-based, and biological weapon systems. For the moment, the US has a large advantage in submarine-based nuclear weapons, but it is said that by 2030, China will have closed the gap. (history.com, 2019),(BBC.com, 2020),(encyclopedia.com, 2020)
The Covid-19 epidemic has brought some other eerie problems to light. A growing number of scientists are claiming that the virus did indeed escape from a lab in Wuhan, and China/N. Korea’s infection numbers are suspiciously low, while both countries are creating conspiracy theories to placate the masses (many blaming the US for the virus). Without getting too conspiratorial myself, could it be that the virus was created as a kind of germ-warfare agent, and that China has had the antidote? Or is it more likely that it was accidental and that China/N. Korea is lying about the real numbers as part of a subterfuge? In any case, though China has gained much scientific expertise as of late, it is also quite irresponsible in the areas of disease control (a well-known vector of zoonotic diseases not helped by open air markets and unsafe ag practices). China is also hopelessly non-transparent, so when trouble breaks out it is hard to know exactly what happened (and to get the subsequent cooperation of other nations). It often lies to hold itself harmless while blaming others, good for controlling its own population but bad for the world as a whole. (Baker, 2021)
Suffice it to say, nurturing/placating China, in hopes that it would become a friendly nation has not entirely worked. Though we have initiated tariffs, we continue to be quite dependent on China for manufacturing, and will be for some time to come. No one really wants a war, which in these times with the accuracy of modern weaponry, would be devastating. Here is where Cold War logic comes into play. I believe that we need to ramp down our trade with China within the next five years, moving manufacturing to friendly low-wage countries in Latin America (which may require a relaxation of some immigration standards). The Christian nations (Western Hemisphere, Europe, India, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa) are further from China’s hegemony, and form a natural block against Chinese expansion. They also form a market that is relatively free from human rights abuse. I’d like to include SE Asia, Koreas and China Sea nations in this group, but I’m afraid there is not much we can do to overcome China’s enormous influence. Additionally, I believe Pakistan, Iran, the Turkic Nations, and much of Africa will succumb to China’s machinations, which certainly sets the stage for WW III. Russia will do what they always do…see which side is winning and join them. Though all this is scary, the bright side is that the US-Soviet Cold War, for all the saber-rattling, actually preserved the peace. Both sides ramped up the weaponry and enjoyed their separate economic spheres, but eventually arms-deals were reached and Russia succumbed to economic pressures. A Sino-American Cold War would likely produce similar results, with a few minor “proxy-wars” thrown in (perhaps an Iran-Saudi Arabia or a Pakistan-India war?). The South China Sea will certainly be disputed, as will the China/India borders. India may have a hard time geographically maintaining its economic independence, while Australia/New Zealand may suffer from high prices due to distance from markets. (Osborne, 2020),(Devonshire-Ellis, 2021)(cfr.org, 2021)
Long-term, I believe the West would be victorious. After all, Western culture is very strong, and at the end of the day, people more or less think our stuff is cooler than Chinese stuff. The challenge will be to figure out how to make our goods as cheap as the Chinese wares, which will require cooperation between the Western “haves” (US/Europe) and the “have-nots” (Latin America). The West is also a more open society, which bodes well for the long-term. Losing much of their wealthy market bases, forced to expand their rather racist culture into countries that dislike them, and trying to manage unruly Middle Eastern and African hot-heads (who will be inclined to blow up their belts and roads if the Chinese don’t worship Allah) will take its toll on China. This new “Iron Curtain” will also take many of the world’s “problem children” off our backs. Best case scenario will be two economic spheres who compete to see who can make better “clean” technology to save the planet, and have some level of cooperation in the name of peace, prosperity, and sustainability. There may also be political reconciliation in the US, as we all work for a common goal, put aside some of our international arrogance, and compete to create the best future electronic, medical, defense, energy and transportation technologies. Worst case…well at least it will solve the population problem.
More Vern Scott stories on the U.S.-China:
Hello China? Can we Borrow a Trillion to Buy more Bombs to Drop on You?
