Yes, if you consider that Trump is like an incumbent, the 51% is less impressive. If 70% of Republicans are foaming at the mouth MAGA (and 40% in a National vote), that probably won't win (BTW, many Haley supporters said they'd vote for Biden over Trump). The thing to worry about is possible minority defection to Trump and Swing State funny business (where conservative State governments in places like GA and AZ may try to void a Biden victory). As usual, the turnout in Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit, Atlanta quite important. The 20% independent vote (and women) are said to be turned-off by Trump, we'll see. Biden's stats are actually pretty good, quite telling that Graham/McConnell are trying to pass Biden's immigration reform, MAGA house doesn't want to give Biden a "victory" (MAGA in a nutshell?) Biden needs to switch-out Harris with someone like H Jeffries.